Sunday, January 11, 2009

Box Office Predictions for Valkyrie

Now that the new set of movies for this week-end have come out, all the previous contenders have slipped down, though still going relatively strong.

So where do we go from now?

Erik Lomis, who oversees worldwide film distribution for MGM have said that "As the long holiday plays out, high-profile movies can expect to collect total domestic tickets sales of four to six times their first three-day weekend".

Valkyrie's box office result for the first three days was $21.5 million. Say five times 20 is $100 on domestic market alone. with $70 so far, and keeping up to speed in the tail of Marley, the film is slowly reaching that target.

Now this is telling nothing of the International market, where Cruise star power is way more considerable than in the US. To wit, even the "flop", "Lions for Lambs" achieved a stunning $50 on the foreign market, compared to only $15 on the domestic market. With a budget of only $35, that should leave Cruise enough to build a few more bunkers on that "flop" alone.

However, it is very unusual for a film to make three times the cash it does at home. More typically, it would be 2 to 2.5 times.

With this in mind, I think the film should relatively easily reach $200-$250 world-wide, not counting the benefit made through DVD and other sideline outlets. It wouldn't surprise me, though, if it would reach eventually $300 to $350, which would be stupendous.

By all means, even just $200 or somewhat less would be completely unexpected as a result for what was a very risky film from many point of view, and would be cause for celebration on the Cruise camp.

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